WINFLY founder Taras Kibitkin on what he saw at one of Europe’s largest defense expos. Drones, the component supply chain, and the mindset: three problems that keep the old defense industry preparing for a war that will never happen.
Despite the bloody war raging literally an hour’s flight to the east, the old defense industry remains largely inert. It continues to build strategies and plans based on outdated assumptions about the battlefield and technology.
It is preparing for a war that will never happen. It is spending money and time on things that will likely never deliver real battlefield value. There are, however, some glimpses of hope. That was exactly the picture we saw again at MSPO 2026 in Kielce a few days ago. Here is how I see the main problems of the old defense industry.
1. Drones first
There is still not enough attention being paid to the drone component — not only as a separate class of weapons, but also to its impact on virtually every other capability. Protection of vehicles, air defense systems, command posts, and any other mobile assets. Passive and active protection that is often simply missing or insufficient. Today, every component — from a missile system to an infantryman’s helmet — should be designed with the understanding that drones will be constantly watching it and may potentially attack at any moment.
At the same time, many UAVs still show obvious “childhood diseases.” Long-range reconnaissance drones often lack sufficient protection against FPV interceptors. Kamikaze drones and loitering munitions often fail to account for the real-world threat posed by electronic warfare.
Many of the systems we saw still looked as if they had been designed for exhibitions and range testing under controlled, comfortable conditions. They still don’t seem to be planning to fight a real war. Otherwise, they would be studying the experience of the war in Ukraine much more closely.
2. The component supply chain
European defense is still far too slow to build its own component base. And today, this is critically important. Around 90% of the drones we saw were using Chinese components — and in many cases, there were no real European alternatives. On paper, everything looks good. But when you look at the actual hardware, many of the components used in exhibition prototypes still carry a very simple label: Made in China.
I saw very few new European manufacturers developing critical components. The old defense industry is too often optimized for generating profit first, and battlefield effectiveness second. Nassim Taleb describes this phenomenon as a “lack of skin in the game.” When you build miltech to protect your family and your country, while operating under severe constraints on resources and time, your motivation is fundamentally different from that of someone simply making money from growing defense budgets.
I don’t claim to have the ultimate answer. These are just my modest observations after MSPO 2026.
The old defense industry is what it is. And we are here to change it. That is exactly what we are working on.